After a thoroughly nasty set of campaigns from her opponents, the recall petition for Margaret Ferrier has succeeded, with the two major parties in Scotland (with loads of help from the media) managing to persuade just over 14% of the electorate to sign. Commons rules meant Margaret was not permitted to put her case before the recall was officially announced, but by that time Labour had already been campaigning for about 2 months. Margaret immediately leaves the Commons and will likely be succeeded in a by-election sometime later this year by a numpty from the Labour party, whose only contribution to the Rutherglen and Hamilton constituency will be his smirking appearance at the post-election photoshoot. You can be sure that he was only picked (over 4 real local candidates) because he agreed to do what he was told by his London bosses.
The recall petition was ‘cleverly’ arranged to conclude while Parliament was on holiday, so maximising the disruption as the by-election can’t be arranged until the Commons returns in September. It means that Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be without representation for some months, so constituents, please make sure you have no problems needing support from your MP until after the by-election and even then, hope that the MP has a team who have some clue and can be bothered to make the effort, though, as we’re talking Labour, that’s far from guaranteed.
Certainly, Labour’s contribution to the campaign was a series of leaflets more notable for their lies and smears than for their policy content. For one example, see here.
At least, you can understand what drove Labour to create the opportunity, first by voting in the Commons committee to make sure that a 30 day suspension was agreed, triggering the recall petition and then conducting this nasty campaign, disguising their party self-interest in a cloak of public concern. They desperately wanted this by-election success to demonstrate that Labour are back to being a political force to be reckoned with in Scotland, even though victory, if it happens, is likely to be more to do with the expected disintegration of the SNP vote rather than any increase in Labour support.
But what’s in it for the SNP? When Nicola Sturgeon prompted this witch hunt against arguably the most hard working SNP MP, but one whose support for independence was at odds with the leadership of the current party, the SNP were riding high in the polls, with the worst of the Hate Crimes Bill, the GRRB, DRS, the offshore wind auction and the rest still to come. Could she have anticipated the backlash and the impact on SNP support or, as many have said, could she have planned it?
But now, with SNP support heading for the toilet, Sturgeon’s replacement decided to continue the persecution of Margaret Ferrier, thus really annoying the large number of constituents who previously supported the SNP, but who had no desire to get rid of Margaret. Of course, they had no voice in the recall, but will certainly make their voice heard in the by-election.
Let’s not forget that the SSP, the Scottish Socialist Party, another supposedly independence supporting party, were also campaigning for the recall, even though they had virtually nothing to gain from a by-election. Perhaps they thought they were on safe ground with no actual independence party standing to point out that the SSP, like the SNP and the Greens, are another party who seem only committed to independence when it suits them.
So we are where we are. If Margaret chooses not to stand again, the constituency will lose a hard-working MP with a proud record of backing local issues and local people. Even worse, her replacement will be either be the Labour candidate who lies about being local (unless you think Partick is part of Rutherglen) or the SNP one, said to be the laziest councillor in South Lanarkshire. Some choice!
So the good people of Rutherglen and Hamilton West have a choice to make. We don’t yet know all who’ll be standing, but the two candidates who have so far been put forward by Labour and SNP are certainly not ones I would vote for (and I have a vote).
One last general point. Are the recall rules fit for purpose? Is the tiny 10% of the constituency electorate (OK 14% in this case) really sufficient to end the career of an MP, especially when the combined might of parties attracting virtually 100% of the voting public are campaigning for the recall? Is it fair that those who oppose the recall get no voice? Is it fair that parties supporting the recall get to campaign for weeks before the recall petition is officially launched, when the MP is prohibited by Commons rules from putting her case during that time? Is it fair that parties can spend up to £10,000 each and make use of party members time, limited only by the number of members in each party, when the MP is effectively on their own? I realise you can’t expect fairness from Westminster, but surely this is just too one-sided.
BEAT THE CENSORS
Many Facebook sites are increasingly censoring bloggers like myself who can be critical of the actions of the SNP and the Scottish Government. They are attempting to prevent bloggers from getting their message out, so we have to depend on readers sharing the blog posts. If you liked this post or others I have written, please share this and take out a free subscription by clicking the follow button on the home page or on the posts. You will then be notified by email of any new posts on the blog. Thank you.
SALVO
The progress of Salvo has been the most encouraging development since 2022. It is doing sterling work educating Scots about the Claim of Right and spelling out what it means that the Scottish people are sovereign, not any Parliament. Salvo has joined with Liberation.scot to develop campaigns the results of which will be available soon.
LIBERATION.SCOT
We are seeking to build up liberation.scot to at least 100,000 signatures as part of our plan to win recognition at the UN as an official liberation movement. We intend to internationalise our battle for independence and through the setting up of the Scottish National Council we will develop our arguments to win progress in the international courts. Please help by signing up at liberation.scot. The membership of liberation.scot is also where the first members of Scottish National Congress will be balloted for selection.
Angry Weegie 
I would jalouse Margaret Ferrier having been subjected to public humiliation, particularly at the hands of the media with tacit endorsement by Sturgeon and her cult will not seek to stand as a candidate in that constituency.
The Parliament at Westminster is a corrupt institution and we can not be surprised in how they construct or interpret the rules. What is absolutely clear is that the upcoming by-election is already a RIGGED affair and is making a mockery of the concept of democracy and worse still the people living and eligible to vote in that constituency.
Westminster is irreparable, Scotland desperately needs to pursue Independence. The STIRLING DIRECTIVE has to be adopted and promoted by ALL Independence supporting organisations.
Salvation is never to be delivered relying on an alien Parliament in another country, their rules permit no such thing and this pseudo by- election will be sufficient endorsement of the fact.
LikeLiked by 4 people
I doubt Margaret will stand again. She would get a lot of local support as she’s well liked in the constituency, but at the cost of a barrage of lies, slurs and abuse from Labour and SNP. Why would she want to go through that again. For me, the worst aspect of this whole sorry episode is the way local SNP members, many of whom owed their positions to Margaret’s hard work, instantly followed Sturgeon’s lead and trashed her on social media and in the local press, encouraging reporters surrounding her house and even turning up outside the house to scream “resign”. They are the most despicable people.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I don’t live in the constituency so I don’t know the local issues and electorate in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
For me the most interesting aspect of the by election when it happens is what the turnout will be. This has around 67% in last 3 general elections for the constituency (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutherglen_and_Hamilton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency). Historically, of course, in all by elections the proportion of the registered electorate voting on the day is significantly lower than at the time of a British General Election so it is likely to be lower than two-thirds when it eventually takes place. But how much lower?
With Margaret Ferrier having confirmed that she will not be standing again – no surprise given what she has had to endure from the press and the back stabbers in her erstwhile party – I reckon that many of prior SNP/pro-Independence voters will choose to stay at home, despite the publicity and controversy surrounding the events leading up to the recall of the sitting MP., so disgusted they will be with the latter’s treatment.
Of course, the Alba Party – who have not a yet declared any intentions – may stand a ‘big beast’ like Alex Salmond which would surely take some of the Independence votes but they are unlikely to win given that a) Salmond is not local, b) is not fully rehabilitated (yet) in the eyes of the public and c) the party would be starting from such a low base.
So the British Labour Party in Scotland are almost certainly a shoe-in. Using the Wikipedia again as a data source my own guess is that Labour will stay much the same, with perhaps a small increase from 2019, (i.e. around 20000 votes) while the SNP vote will collapse from 24000 in 2019 to around 16000. That would mean a reduction in turnout to under 60%, Labour up from 35% to 43%, SNP down from 44% to 32% and – with all other parties remaining roughly where they are – turnout falling by around 10%.
It’s only one of many possible scenarios but if it played out roughly like that I would infer that a sizable proportion of the Independence supporting constituents in R&HW will have concluded that the SNP is essentially a devolutionist party (with a transgenderist wing).
LikeLiked by 1 person
I think it will turn out pretty much as you’ve said, though your numbers may be a bit optimistic.
The Labour candidate is not liked. He was imposed by British Labour, ahead of 4 locals who had put their names forward. He’s been presented as a local, but he’s only been local since he was selected. That’s had an effect on canvassing, in most of the pictures coming out there are almost no local activists, only payroll people, and the numbers are bolstered by English party members. Whether, come the election, many will choose not to vote could be a different matter.
The SNP candidate is not liked. She is said to be the laziest councillor in South Lanark, with umpteen stories going round of people who asked for help getting ignored. Why she was chosen is a bit of a mystery. Perhaps she’s prepared to do whatever Yousaf asks? At press conferences and public meetings, she rarely speaks. You’ll have seen photos of press conferences with her sitting behind Yousaf, not looking happy.
I don’t think Labour’s vote will increase. It may even go down if local activists boycott the election, knowing that Labour will win anyway. The SNP vote may go down further than you suggest. There will be a big boycott from independence voters pissed off by the total lack of progress, voters very unhappy with the treatment of Margaret Ferrier as well as those sickened by transgenderism, made worse by the recent acceptance of SPATH by SNP/SG, which could potentially ruin the lives of hundreds of children.
Anyway, the net result is that Labour will win, the SNP will get thrashed (not physically, of course) and the press will be full of stories that independence is dead.
It’s almost certain that Alba will put up a candidate as the SNP will never agree to a Scotland United ticket. Their decision on the candidate could have a big impact on the voting, but, if they’re going to stand, they have to start campaigning very soon.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Angry,
I too, live in the constituency, believe in Independence, and if Alba do not stand a candidate, I will have nobody to vote for. I could not vote for Katy Louden, would not touch the SS, and will not vote for a Unionist party; any of them.
Under these circumstances, I will spoil my voting paper and urge others to do the same.
However, beware, if you petulantly score a cross across the whole paper, when it comes to the adjudication of the “spoiled papers”, it will usually be interpreted that where the arms of the cross intersect, is a “voting intention”, even though it falls outwith the boxes provided for that purpose. As this cross will probably intersect somewhere in the middle of the paper, there’s a fair chance it will land in a Unionist candidate’s portion. In such a case, you will not have spoiled your paper, but be deemed to have voted Unionist.
Please therefore, if you are disenchanted with the SNP and intend spoiling your paper, and I would urge you to do so rather than vote Labour, do so by writing “Independence” across it. This achieves two aims. The first is to genuinely spoil it without running the risk of being interpreted as a “voting intention”, and secondly, it will annoy the life out of Katy, who before the last couple of days, I have never known to promote Independence, only the failed mantra of “We want a referendum”.
To those who would say “But by not voting SNP you allow Labour in, who will never allow Independence”, I would say, you will never achieve Independence by voting for the current SNP, so what’s the difference?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Robert, I can only agree with your exclusions. I certainly won’t be voting for any unionist party nor any party that contributed to Margaret Ferrier’s recall. Should you choose to spoil your vote, as you say, you have to be careful how you do it.
However, don’t despair. ISP have said that they will be standing and Alba have given the SNP until the 26th of this month to agree a Scotland United candidate or they will also stand. As we know the SNP won’t go for Scotland United, that means both ISP and Alba will be there, unlikely to prevent a Labour win, but hopefully with a strong showing.
Imagine if the total votes for ISP, Alba and the SNP exceeded Labour’s. The SNP would claim they lost because of the intervention of the other independence parties, but the rest of us would know that a Scotland United ticket was the way to go. But isn’t it strange that all the independence supporting voters can’t do as the unionists do, just vote for the party most likely to win. Maybe because we all know that the SNP have really got non independence objectives.
LikeLike