The Priorities of the Scottish Government

What should be the more important to the Scottish Government? Saving the planet or saving Scotland?

Recent activity of the Scottish Government (or should I say the Scottish Green Government) has concentrated on bringing forward legislation that, at least according to Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie, will make Scotland a fairer place, reduce Scotland’s impact on our planet, hasten the advent of net zero and show the rest of the world how to do it. But whatever happens, we have to be first. It just won’t be the same if we’re not world leading.

So, what’s the plan? Though plan might be the wrong word as there’s not been a great deal of planning so far. We’ve had the GRR Bill debacle, the HPMA Bill debacle, the DRS Bill debacle and now the Great Heat Pump Saga debacle. All these Scottish Green initiatives were characterised by only being discussed with people and groups who agreed with the government and not being interested in taking into account opposing ideas or suggestions.

Were the government shocked to learn that most women weren’t keen on the idea of men with lippy and a wig invading their safe spaces and waving their willies? If only they had been asked.

Were the government shocked to learn that many crofters and others living in places where fishing would be banned by HPMA depended on fishing for their survival? If only they had been asked.

Were the government shocked to learn that many people weren’t keen on replacing a recycling system where local authorities came along and collected bottles, jars, cans and other recyclable material and replacing it with a privatised one which only dealt with bottles and cans and where individuals were responsible for taking stuff back to a recycling centre that could be many miles away and which resulted the cost of purchase for some items increasing by over 100%? If only they had been asked.

Were the government shocked to learn that many people were distinctly unhappy about being told they would quite soon have to replace their gas boiler with a heat pump, in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis at a cost of (apparently) anything up to £50,000-£60,000? If only they had been asked.

As no government estimate of cost (or anything else) is forthcoming (of course, that needs planning), we have to rely on unsubstantiated stories in the media describing the experience of various individuals.

These stories tell us that air source heat pumps are unsuitable for the Scottish climate, not just because they apparently don’t produce as much heat as a gas boiler and therefore need a modified central heating system with larger radiators, but mainly because the cost of the electricity needed to run them is horrendously expensive in Scotland, three times the cost of gas.

We now have the utterly ludicrous situation that Harvie, who appears to be acting on his own in this, is now making it virtually impossible to install one common form of green energy, solar panels, because of his desire for every residence in Scotland to convert to heat pumps.

These fiascos are perfect examples of the actions of Scotland’s Green infused government.

The Scottish Green Government’s new policy introduction goes something like this. Think of an idea. Announce it. Then (if you can be bothered) investigate the practicality of introducing it. But, on no account speak to anyone affected by the policy unless you know they’ll agree with you, even if you have to pay them to agree.

But is there a point to all this (small g) green activity?

Let’s revisit the original question. What should be the more important to the Scottish Government? Saving the planet or saving Scotland?

Will these proposals save the planet or even contribute to saving the planet in any meaningful way? Much has already been said about the DRS, so let’s look at the Greens latest wheeze, the heat pump.

Let’s take it as correct that all countries should reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases to prevent catastrophic climate change, even though there’s a substantial body of opinion against that view.

The world total of greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 was 54,593 Megatonnes (million tonnes). In the same year, Scottish emissions were about 41.6 Megatonnes and, like most Western countries, are reducing, mainly thanks to the Western trend of outsourcing manufacturing to China and other Far Eastern countries. 41 million tonnes sounds like a lot, but putting it in context, Scottish emissions represent three quarters of one tenth of 1 percent of the global total (0.076%), which could be described as a drop in the ocean (or a puff in the air?).

Looking at the longer-term trends, in 2015 (the first year of the Sturgeon era), Scottish emissions were 48.1 Megatonnes, so the 2021 figure shows a reduction of 14% (average 2.3%/year) over that period and a 49.2% drop from 81.9 Megatonnes in 1990 (average 1.6%/year), so as you can see the reduction in emissions is accelerating without the drastic intervention proposed by the Scottish Green Government.

The three biggest greenhouse gas emitters are China (25% of 2021 levels), USA (11%) and India (7%). China’s emissions have shown a 12.8% increase since 2015 to the 2021 figure of 13,710 Megatonnes. Should China maintain that level of increase, it would result in a daily increase of 789 tonnes. Or, to put it another way, should Scotland miraculously reduce its emissions to zero by tomorrow, it would take China about 53 days to replace the Scottish figure.

So, the Green Government proposals would result in a 53 day reduction in world emissions. It would also result in a vast amount of money (£ billions) being spent by Scottish householders on upgrading their heating systems and if they’re spending all their money on heat pumps, they’re certainly not spending on anything else. Is all the financial pain to the Scottish people and the knock-on negative impact on the Scottish economy inherent in the Government proposals justified by the virtually zero impact on world emissions?

Surely, for any right-thinking person, the answer is no.

The Scottish Green Government proposals will not save the planet or even contribute in any meaningful way to saving the planet, but they will wreck the Scottish economy and put hundreds of thousands of Scottish households into debt.

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Global and country data quoted above has been sourced from https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions. See full figures here. Scottish figures come from the Scottish Government website.

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